Pool 1

#1

A TO THE CROFT certainly ran against the best of her crop last year. She ran competitively in each race leading up to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, chalking up black type with second place finishes in the Adirondack (GII), Spinaway (GI) and Alcibiades (GI). The only demerit on her record is her 9th place finish in the B.C. Juvenile Fillies; while this glaring defeat is a legitimate cause for concern, it can certainly be explained away if you believe she has the talent to compete at the top level. A TO THE CROFT added blinkers for the first time in that race and vied for the early lead, a stark contrast to each of her earlier races where she came from off the pace; this put her dueling with undefeated champion Indian Blessing through testy fractions, certainly not an ideal situation for any filly. This race was also the first time she had encountered a sloppy track. Her ability to navigate a distance of ground seems in question, but her pedigree suggests she should be able to sustain longer distances. She shows a couple works on the Gulfstream Park tab for trainer Kenny McPeek in advance of her sophomore debut. This one will have to be your call; there are obvious things to like and dislike. There seems to be a lot of upside when you consider she is 30-1 on the morning line.

Odds: 30-1

 

#2

AMERICAN COUNTY seems to be the veteran filly of this wagering pool, having already amassed ten lifetime starts. She has put together an enviable race record having hit the board in nine of ten outings with the only unplaced effort being a fourth place finish which came when she awkwardly shipped to California from Kentucky to finish fourth in the Sorrento (GIII) behind some tough fillies over the synthetic strip at Del Mar. She began her 2008 season with a wire-to-wire win in the Sunshine Millions Oaks to notch her first stakes win for trainer Dale Romans. The obvious drawback to this filly is her ability to go a distance of ground, a feat she has not even attempted despite ten trips to the races. Concerns about her stamina are well founded considering her speed dominated pedigree and her penchant for aggressively pursuing the lead. We’re not convinced that even her connections has lilies in mind for this lassie and might instead point for some alluring black type last this year in some shorter races.

Odds: 30-1

 

#3

BACKSEAT RHYTHM has been tearing up the Gulfstream Park work tab as she readies for her return to racing. She stamped herself as one of the best 2-year-old fillies of 2007 once she was given the chance to run a distance of ground. She was defeated in her first two maiden tries while sprinting, but put forth a great effort to break her maiden when she switched to the grass going two turns; in that effort she defeated Country Star and Mushka, both considered to be at the top of their class. BACKSEAT RHYTHM made the leap from maiden company to Grade 1 stakes action when she participated in the Frizette (GI) and finished a good second to undefeated champion Indian Blessing, closing four lengths on that rival in the stretch. She met that same foe in her final start of the season, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she finished third after closing from last through a crowded field of thirteen fillies in the sloppy going. It is tough to knock this one on her merits as she has run competitively against the best fillies pointing for the Kentucky Oaks. She hasn’t been getting much acknowledgement but seems to be a good investment at 20-1.

Odds: 20-1

 

#4

BSHARPSONATA has seemingly found her home on the turf course, running a trio of great races since being switched to the weeds. This is not altogether surprising given that her dam, Apasionata Sonata, was a stakes winner of the grass. She closed out her 2-year-old season with a win in the Selima Stakes at Laurel Park over Grace and Power, who went on to finish second to divisional leader Country Star in the Hollywood Starlet (GI). She stepped up once again in her 3-year-old debut to win the Tropical Park Oaks; her final time for that race matched up very similarly to Cowboy Cal’s win in the Topical Park Derby (GIII) just two races later, a notable feat considering Cowboy Cal’s enviable reputation. The obvious concern is whether or not her connections plan to switch her back to the dirt, and if they do, can she handle it? She has run well in two starts over the Delaware Park dirt course, breaking her maiden at first asking and taking a stakes race by seven lengths. Away from Delaware Park, however, she has run a pair of dismal races at Monmouth and Saratoga against stakes competition. Given that those races were sprint race, one could say she just needed distance before excelling over either surface. However, that requires a leap of faith that even her own connections may not be willing to take. She seems like a risky investment at 30-1.

Odds: 30-1

 

#5

BY THE LIGHT is unbeaten and untested from four lifetime starts. While her race record matches that of champion Indian Blessing, BY THE LIGHT has faced much softer competition in each of her four outings. Her first three races came while sprinting in races restricted to New York bred rivals, the latter two of those three races coming at Finger Lakes. She certainly proved to be a talented filly when she stepped up against open company for the first time in the Delta Princess and won by 5 ¼-lengths while going a mile; she also came from off the pace in that event, in contrast with her earlier races where she aggressively tackled the fast early pace. Her final time of 1:40 1/5 seconds was uninspiring although she won the race by quite a bit. This daughter of Malibu Moon has yet to face any real competition which makes it tough to gauge how good she really is. She is training at Fair Grounds for Richard Dutrow Jr. and would run into Indian Blessing if she decides to go in the Silverbulletday (GIII). Without a graded effort to her credit it seems tough to accept odds of 15-1.

Odds: 15-1

 

#6

CJ’S LEELEE put forth a big effort to finish second in the Golden Rod (GII) at Churchill Downs to close out her 2-year-old season. She was able to stay close to a slow early pace throughout much of the race but was unable to hold off the undefeated filly Pure Clan. She was ¾-length better than highly touted Turn Away in that race. While she has shown an affinity for Churchill Downs on both dirt and turf, there is cause for concern about her ability to handle the best of her division. She seemed to have everything her own way in the Golden Rod and seems without an excuse for the loss. Her pedigree lends itself to being questioned in regards to stamina; Mizzen Mast seems to put out more miler type horses, most of which seem to enjoy grass better than dirt. CJ’S LEELEE has run poorly only on the synthetic surface. She has been working steadily at Gulfstream Park for trainer Kenny McPeek as she prepares for her return to action. One might be inclined to take a wait and see attitude with this one until she gives reason to act one way or the other.

Odds: 30-1

 

#7

COUNTRY STAR has become the darling of her crop after emphatic wins in the Darley Alcibiades (GI) and Hollywood Starlet (GI). This vixen seems to be the total package. She is owned by Stonerside and trained by Kentucky Oaks winning trainer Bobby Frankel. She is bred to the gills, by Empire Maker (1st Belmont Stakes, 2nd Kentucky Derby) out of Rings a Chime, who finished second in the Kentucky Oaks after winning the Ashland (GI). COUNTRY STAR finished second in her first start, a 1 1/16 mile grass race in New York where she was beaten by Backseat Rhythm (subsequently third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies) and finished ahead of third place finisher Mushka (subsequently the winner of the Demoiselle). She made her next start in the Darley Alcibiades despite her status as a maiden; she defied conventional wisdom in that race and defeated nine accomplished rivals. The race that marked her as a very serious filly was her track record performance in the Hollywood Starlet, a race she won by nearly three lengths while completing the 1 1/16 mile distance in 1:40 2/5, eye popping for a 2-year-old of either sex. After that race her connections decided to nominate her to the Triple Crown, and her regular rider Rafael Bejarano has been quoted mentioning the Kentucky Derby against males for this filly. Her conditioner Bobby Frankel seems more reserved, even mentioning that he may focus on neither the Derby nor Oaks and instead point for the Triple Tiara in New York over the summer. This makes betting her in the Kentucky Oaks pool a risky venture when considering that she may opt to run against the boys in the Derby or might even skip Kentucky altogether to focus elsewhere.

Odds: 8-1

 

#8

EIGHT BELLES entered the Kentucky Oaks conversation with a dazzling fifteen length win in a first level allowance at Fair Grounds in her most recent start. This isn’t the first time she has freaked out with an off the chart effort, as she broke her maiden by ten lengths in her third career start after two lackluster races, much like the two lackluster races she put in between that maiden breaking score and her most recent win. Having said that, it seems clear that consistency is not her game, which makes her a dicey investment in any race. She sports the same jockey/trainer combo as Proud Spell, her more accomplished and heralded stablemate. The next logical step for Eight Bells would have been the Silverbulletday (GIII) but she will skip the race to avoid a showdown with that stablemate. Where she ends up next is up for speculation, just as one might speculate as to which Eight Belles will show up: the sensationally talented speedball or the lackluster bridesmaid? She’s tough to endorse in this pool.

Odds: 30-1

 

#9

FINAL FLING pounced on the Kentucky Oaks trail with a surprise win in the Santa Ysabel (GIII). She came into the race having never run a route of ground and only a state-bred maiden victory to her credit. The doubters were proved wrong when she swung wide and won by 1 ¼-lengths. The story of the race, however, was the poor showing from Turn Away, who apparently took a bad step and was vanned off the track; Turn Away was uninjured but was taken out of contention as the huge favorite. Nonetheless, it was a good performance for the Cal-bred daughter of Bertrando. One obvious drawback for this filly is the fact that she has never raced over the conventional dirt surface. Of course her pedigree suggests she should handle it, but it takes a leap of faith to judge races over Santa Anita’s cushion surface at face value. Nevertheless, she is unlikely to race on dirt between now and the Kentucky Oaks, so your guess might be as good today as it would be on Kentucky Oaks morning. It is tough to consider her to be in the same league as some of these other fillies after just one try against winners and her odds will probably float up as the pool gets underway.

Odds: 20-1

 

#10

GAME FACE burst onto the scene with a flashy seven length win in the Old Hat (GII) at Gulfstream Park in her most recent start. Making the jump from maiden special weight company to graded stakes action was clearly not a problem for the daughter of Menifee as she showed class by settling off a brisk pace in the early stages of the race and drawing off to the easiest of victories with a nice final time of 1:15 4/5 for the 6 ½-furlong race. It was widely expected that she would follow up in the Forward Gal (GII) to be run February 9 at the same track but trainer Todd Pletcher has opted to bypass that race and return in the 1-mile Davona Dale (GII) on March 2, perhaps to give his filly more flex time before she is to be tested going two turns for the first time. There is certainly nothing in her pedigree that suggests that distance will be any problem. It is hard to deny that she boasts a lot of talent and seems to be maturing quickly and at just the right time. Her opening odds of 20-1 seem to be right on the money.

Odds: 20-1

 

#11

GOLDEN DOC A was just a head shy of handing last year’s champion 2-year-old filly Indian Blessing the first defeat of her career in the Santa Ynez (GII) at Santa Anita. She unleashed a furious rally in the stretch and nearly caught the exhausted champion in a seven furlong race that had an eye-popping final time of 1:19 4/5 seconds, easily a track record; she was nearly eight lengths clear of the third place finisher. The monstrous effort came at a sprint distance, however, and did little to dispel concerns about her ability to handle a distance of ground. Her pedigree suggests that sprinting is her game; her full brother Unusual Suspect was able to stretch his speed to capture longer races, but most of those came over the turf course. Likewise, GOLDEN DOC A’s best performances going two turns have come over the turf course while her only start going long over the synthetic surface resulted in a lackluster 9th place finish. It is worth noting that Barry Abrams, her trainer, recently gave her seven furlong workout over the turf course, perhaps trying to either gauge her abilities going a distance of ground or to get her plenty fit leading up to another try going long. She has almost always run a competitive race from nine career starts and it is tough to deny she has quite a bit of talent. In this wagering pool, however, she seems risky at best.

Odds: 20-1

 

#12

GRACE ANATOMY has raced against top company for her entire career and always comes with lofty expectations. She has yet to break through with a truly dazzling effort and has managed only a single win from six lifetime starts. She met a soft field in the Santa Ysabel (GIII) and was only able to manage a second place finish to recent state-bred maiden winner Final Fling. She also closed out her 2-year-old season very poorly, with lopsided defeats in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (7th beaten 18 lengths) and Hollywood Starlet (8th beaten 12 lengths). The loss in the B.C. race is the more distressing as she failed to perform in her only start over a conventional dirt racing surface. It is tough to get excited about this filly at any odds given her spotty record.

Odds: 30-1

 

#13

GRACE AND POWER shipped west to take a stab at the Hollywood Starlet (GI) and made a good showing, finishing second to divisional leader Country Star in what amounted to be a track record setting performance. The race was her first start away from the turf course after she had run four times on the east coast over the grass. She stayed under the radar while garnering black type in minor stakes races, winning a sweepstakes at Meadowlands, finishing third in a $250,000 stakes race on the Breeders’ Cup undercard behind highly regarded Sea Chanter, and running second to Bsharpsonata in the $100,000 Selima Stakes at Laurel Park. While her pedigree may not be dazzling, there is plenty of talent looking back at her third dam including Master Command, Honor in War, Lost Soldier, Lasting Approval and Al Mamoom. This ultra consistent filly hasn’t quite proven she belongs in the same breath as the likes of Country Star or Indian Blessing but she has done nothing to suggest that she doesn’t belong. She might be a good gamble.

Odds: 30-1

 

#14

INDIAN BLESSING remains undefeated after a narrow win in the Santa Ynez (GII). She clinched championship honors last year with three wins from as many starts, including romps in both the Frizette (GI) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI). She has shown dazzling speed in each of her races, often times opening up insurmountable leads turning for home and wrapping up in the stretch due to a lack of competition. She showed just how fast she was in the Santa Ynez, running the first half-mile in a sizzling :43 3/5 seconds and stopping the clock for the seven furlongs race in a wacky 1:19 4/5, easily a track record. The question many handicappers have about INDIAN BLESSING is not her talent but her ability to compete at the top level going two turns. She won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies under such circumstances but lost ground in the stretch, just as she has done in each of her races. Her pedigree gives mixed signals about her stamina; her sire is not widely viewed as a stayer but has thrown such accomplished fillies as Fleet Indian, Pampered Princess and Two Trail Sioux – each of them top notch fillies who excelled going a distance of ground over the main track. The bottom side of the pedigree is less optimistic; her dam, Shameful, was a talented stakes winner who had dazzling speed just like INDIAN BLESSING, but could not hold that speed much further than six furlongs. Looking further down the line shows several black type winners who all favored shorter distances. Judged on her own merits, however, INDIAN BLESSING has not proven that she can actually be caught or beaten and remains at the head of her class until she does. She will get another opportunity to strut her stuff in the Silverbulletday (GIII) on Saturday, Feb. 9, when she will face Proud Spell and Jolie The Cat. There is enough upside to this one to make her a solid bet at 8-1, given that she performs well this weekend.

Odds: 8-1

 

#15

IZARRA started her career with three smart races, breaking her maiden at first asking before placing in a pair of Grade 1 races, including a heartbreaking nose defeat in the Oak Leaf (GI) after closing from far out of it. She was the buzz horse going into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and was widely seen as being the biggest threat to Indian Blessing. It wasn’t meant to be, however, as she struggled home 10th beaten 26 ¼-lengths by that rival. Particularly distressing was that she made such a poor showing in her first start over a dirt track. Trainer Ron McAnally regrouped and put her in the Santa Ynez (GII) for another shot at Indian Blessing, this time over a synthetic surface. Once again IZARRA was a non-factor, finishing last of five and 17-lengths behind Indian Blessing. She has since returned with two sharp workouts over the cushion surface at Santa Anita but clearly has a lot of questions to answer before getting any solid endorsements for the Kentucky Oaks.

Odds: 50-1

 

#16

JOLIE THE CAT looked impressive in taking the Tiffany Lass Stakes at Fair Grounds in her most recent start. She made the leap from maiden company to stakes competition with success. Perhaps more impressive was the way she was able to transition so seamlessly from a 5 ½-furlong maiden event to a 1-mile, two turn stakes race. She seems to be improving at the right time for trainer Steve Asmussen, but still seems to have something to prove before being confidently mentioned as a Kentucky Oaks contender. She had everything her own way in the Tiffany Lass as she was allowed to set pedestrian fractions on the front end of a short field; the fillies left in her wake were also unable to boast inspiring credentials prior to the race. She has yet to do anything wrong but will need to be asked to step up her game to break into the upper echelon of this division. She will get the opportunity to do just that when she faces the top two finishers in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Indian Blessing and Proud Spell, in the Silverbulletday (GIII) on Saturday, Feb. 9.

Odds: 30-1

 

#17

PROUD SPELL was handed the only defeat of her career in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, finishing second behind another unbeaten filly, Indian Blessing, who was subsequently named the divisional champion. Had Proud Spell won that race she would have been champion herself and the early favorite for the Kentucky Oaks. She was catching that foe in the late stages of the race but couldn’t quite get there, finishing just over three lengths behind the winner. This came after three victories which included a 4 ½-length romp in the Matron (GII). This year Proud Spell has been training at Fair Grounds where she has been in several sharp efforts, including a seven furlong blowout on January 21st. While her pedigree doesn’t scream stamina, she continues to improve as distances get longer. Larry Jones appears locked and loaded to send another live 3-year-old to Churchill Downs for the first weekend of May. Her 12-1 opening odds should seem enticing for those who think Indian Blessing can’t get the distance and Country Star will point for other things such as the Triple Tiara or Kentucky Derby. Be sure to watch how she runs this weekend in the Silverbulletday (GIII) at Fair Grounds on February 9 when she faces local filly Jolie The Cat and divisional leader Indian Blessing.

Odds: 12-1

 

#18

PURE CLAN capped an undefeated season with a two-length victory in the Golden Rod (GII). In fact, she captured both graded stakes races offered for 2-year-old fillies during the Churchill Downs Fall Meet, both in dramatic come-from-behind fashion. She has employed devastating stretch rallies in each of her four starts to blow by any rivals who happen to be in front of her. It is difficult to find any glaring drawbacks to this filly. She sports an unheralded but sturdy pedigree. She is by black type winner Pure Prize out of the Grade 3 winning mare Gather The Clan, making her a half sister to Greater Good, himself a former Kentucky Derby starter and subsequent track record setter at Churchill Downs. She sports a noticeable amount of stamina influence from both the top and bottom sides of her pedigree, laced with a built in affinity for the turf, which she has displayed a liking for. Her second dam, What a Summer, was the champion sprinter of 1977 and produced Pure Clan’s dam Gather The Clan when she was crossed with General Assembly, a son of Secretariat. Pure Clan’s unique combination of speed and stamina makes her a volatile force on this trail. She will take the Oaklawn Park route to the Kentucky Oaks and it is tough to see her fall short in those races, meaning her odds are likely to continue falling as we approach to the Kentucky Oaks. Her 12-1 opening odds seem like a good bet if you like what you see.

Odds: 12-1

 

#19

RATED FIESTY was robbed of her unbeaten status what she crossed the wire first in the Dixie Belle Stakes at Oaklawn Park, only to be disqualified to third for interference in the stretch. Regardless of her official placing, the race had implications for the Asmussen camp. RATED FIESTY flaunted her natural speed once again and seemed tired at the end of the race, holding on against seemingly overmatched rivals to win by just a head. This can be expected as it was her first start since last summer, but they had to be looking for a little more from her. Things won’t get any easier for her if she stays on the Kentucky Oaks trail. With Pure Clan lurking on the same Oaklawn Park backstretch, Rated Fiesty will be put in the salty position of being that rival’s number one target should they meet in a prep race. Her 20-1 opening odds are tough to justify.

Odds: 20-1

 

#20

SEA CHANTER has proven to be a daunting challenger on the turf course but has never competed over anything but the grass, be it a dirt track or synthetic surface. She closed out her 2-year-old season with back-to-back wins in stakes races run over the weeds; she beat a loaded field of talented fillies in a stakes race on the Breeders’ Cup undercard before shipping out west to take the Miesque (GIII) over another solid field of rivals. It would be tough to make a convincing case that her connections really want to shift away from the grass for spring classics, given that they already have their Derby horse (Cowboy Cal) and their Oaks filly (Country Star). However, if they did decide to skew away from the grass surface, her pedigree suggests she should be able to handle the dirt. Her sire, War Chant, was quite accomplished on the dirt before switching to the turf course, having done enough to earn a berth in the Kentucky Derby. Her female family boasts such accomplished dirt horses as Rhythm (Breeders Cup Juvenile winner) and Bluegrass Cat (2nd in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes). The most troubling part about taking this filly is the lack of any recent workouts on her tab. Taking a pass might be the best thing to do in this instance.

Odds: 20-1

 

#21

TASHA’S MIRACLE has been hovering below the radar for quite some time. Many in the industry took notice after her dazzling effort in the Sorrento (GIII) and nearly just as many jumped ship after her fifth place finish in the Oak Leaf (GI) despite her being just over two lengths behind the winner. She went into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies as a forgotten horse and came out of the race much the same way after a credibly yet uninspiring fourth place finish. Her pedigree might be just as bland as her race record; she is by Harlan’s Holiday out of a Relaunch mare who has produced two other stakes placed runners. There seems to be something about her that signals she has the potential to run with these fillies, though it may be tough to pinpoint. She has been keeping tough company and has never come close to embarrassing herself. She is working solidly for trainer John Sadler out in California and should be approaching her seasonal bow. She is tough to endorse at odds of 20-1 but could be a sneaky investment if she floats up.

Odds: 20-1

 

#22

TIZAQUEENA is the junior members of this cast with just two career starts to boast. She has done very little wrong in those two starts and shown a good amount of ability. After breaking her maiden at first asking in December of last year by a resounding 5 ¼-lengths she was asked to step up against stakes company in the Tiffany Lass. Participation in the race proved to be a good judgment call seeing as the field was soft, to be charitable, and she was allowed to follow Jolie The Cat all the way around the oval. TIZAQUEENA was unable to run down that rival in the late stages of the race, but that is a tall order for a filly making just her second start, especially considering the dawdling fractions the winner was allowed to set. Nevertheless, her connections have decided to stop the meteoric rise in class, at least for the immediate future. She will bypass the Silverbulletday (GIII) and thus avoid a potentially bruising conflict with Indian Blessing, Proud Spell and Jolie The Cat. Perhaps big things will come late for this novice filly but to place your wager here you are betting she will be ready to win the Kentucky Oaks in 87 days. That’s a tough pill to swallow.

Odds: 50-1

 

#23

TURN AWAY turned quiet a few heads after her blowout maiden romp in her career debut at Churchill Downs, taking a seven furlong event by nearly ten lengths. She was immediately launched into graded stakes action with the wind at her back, being sent off as the staunch even-money favorite in Golden Rod (GII) despite facing more experienced rivals. Her prospects did not dim after an encouraging third place finish behind Pure Clan and C J’s Leelee after she encountered a rough trip and finished up strongly. She wouldn’t start for nearly two months after that race, appearing in the Santa Ysabel (GIII) to make her 3-year-old bow; she was once again sent off as a commanding favorite despite facing more credentialed rivals, this time at 3-5 odds. The circumstances of her performance in that race remain somewhat unclear as she finished last of six, beaten nearly twenty lengths before being vanned off the track. Apparently she was uninjured, just the victim of a bad step somewhere along the way. She hasn’t been back to the work tab since that effort and there seems to be a lot of unknowns – too many to endorse her for this pool with any amount of confidence.

Odds: 20-1

 

#24

FIELD