A Lady Must Look Good

Bsharpsonata (Photo by: Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club)Bsharpsonata (Photo by: Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club)

If you’re going to handicap a filly race, do you go about it differently than if you were looking at a field full of colts and geldings?

Some folks would say “yes” to that one; other might say “no way.”

In the case of yours truly, there was a tip given by a wise, old handicapper many moons ago that has been followed with a fair degree of success down through the years. This gentleman -- and he was surely that -- said simply that you want a filly that looks like a lady.

In the case of colts and geldings, he noted, looks aren’t near that important. They can look ratty, scrawny, disheveled – like it’s Sunday morning at the frat house following the Saturday night toga party. And often it won’t matter a lick. If they can run, and if they want to run, they will.

Ah, but with the fillies, they need to look the part – and you need to go to the paddock beforehand to be aware of it. You need to see that coat gleam. You need to see those eyes bright. You need to get the impression that she’s a happy miss wanting to be right where she is right now.

It’s sort of like that on the human side, too, isn’t it? A married friend has a phrase he lives by: “Happy wife, happy life.” Ah, but we’ll leave that discussion for another day.

Meanwhile, back at the track, we figured if anyone might have some insight into handicapping a filly race it would be a filly – of the Homo sapien variety, of course. So we asked several of them with racing backgrounds if they had a special way of looking at a filly race. Here’s what they had to say:

JOY SCOTT (Jockey on the Southern California circuit since 1981; rides Thoroughbreds and mixed breeds; continues to ride despite broken bones and rehabilitations that surely would have sent a lesser person into a safer line of work): “With young horses, the fillies just mature faster than the colts. They run these two-furlong races out here for 2-year-olds and the fillies can more than hold their own against the colts. But in a filly race I love one that likes to come from off the pace. I look for a brave one; a persistent one that will keep on trying no matter what. That’s the kind I look for.”

JANE GOLDSTEIN (For many years the Director of Publicity at Santa Anita): “The only thing I would do differently in handicapping females is to see if any have performed against males (well; not necessarily win) in her racing class. That is a mark of talent for me.”

CINDY NIMITZ (West Coast representative for the International Racing Bureau): “One thing that I always look for when handicapping filly races is the condition of their coat. In Europe, they say ‘She has a bloom on.’ It means that the coat is shiny and dappling out. As you know, it is very important for women to look their best when trying to win at anything. Fillies go through awkward stages in the spring, so to me this (the shiny coat) is a good indication of how they might run.”

JENNIE REES (Turf writer for the Louisville Courier-Journal): “I think in the case of a race like the Kentucky Oaks as opposed to the Kentucky Derby, I think ‘the rules’ don’t necessarily apply. In the case of the Derby there are certain things we believe a horse has to do in order to win it. You know, run a mile and an eight; have so many races, things like that. In the case of the Oaks, I don’t think that’s true. I think a filly could win a race like that off a layoff; though I don’t think a colt could ever win the Derby that way. I don’t think a filly has to have run a mile and a sixteenth, say, coming up to the Oaks in order to be prepared for it. I just don’t think fillies need all the foundation for it that colts need for the Derby.”

GAYLE VAN LEER (A lady who has worn many hats in racing and is currently one of the most respected bloodstock agents in the business): “Give me a big, strong filly. I don’t want any wash outs in the paddock. I want them to be cool, calm and collected. You don’t see this stuff in the Racing Form. You need to see it for yourself. That’s what I look for.”

So there you go. See you all down at the paddock Oaks Day, and have those Derby picks ready, too. That Oaks-Derby Double is a sweet one to hit.

Join the Discussion

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mac

04/17/2008 3:10 pm

Hi, there, Mac. Sure is lonely over here, isn't it?

mac

04/17/2008 3:10 pm

You bet, Mac. Gets so bad I start talking to myself.

mac

04/17/2008 3:11 pm

You'd think someone would want to come on board and say something about all these pretty fillies, wouldn't you?

mac

04/17/2008 3:12 pm

Well, at least you and I are.
So, is there any news you can pass on?

mac

04/17/2008 3:15 pm

Well, actually, yes. Rafael Bejerano is over his cracked back (he'll win the Santa Anita riding title despite it) and has been put back up on Country Star by trainer Robert Frankel for the Oaks.
Further, trainer Barry Abrams has gotten a call from Kent ("I've got Big Brown tomorrow") Desormeaux on Golden Doc A for the nine-furlong Grade I.

mac

04/17/2008 3:16 pm

Good stuff. Nice talkin' to ya'. Next time bring some of your friends.

scooter811

04/17/2008 3:36 pm

I am sorry to see people still not talking on here about the girls. I am still more excited about the filles. I must say I have never been one to make a pick by looks, but I do like a bright eyed alert filly prior to a race. I will have to start looking at that a little more. I just came back from Keeneland and had to go looking for Eight Belles and Proud Spell to see them up close and personal. Found them, but unfortunately Proud Spell wouldn't even stick her head out of her stall. Eight Belles did, but that's all I saw.

scooter811

04/17/2008 3:39 pm

Any news on Awsome Chic? I haven't heard any news on her recently. Is she pointing to the Oaks?

mac

04/17/2008 4:53 pm

Scooter811 --
Awesome Chic is still supposed to be a go for the Oaks. Calvin Borel has the call.
She was supposed to run at Hot Springs, but something came up with the owner and she wasn't shipped for the race. She's training at Tampa (worked 6f there last Friday) and will be Kentucky-bound soon. She's got one two-turn start, her tally in the Floriday Oaks at Tampa on March 15. That was her last start.

scooter811

04/17/2008 6:59 pm

I'll have to add her to my stable and check her works. She seems to have liked the distance in the FL Oaks.

derbyme

04/17/2008 7:15 pm

Point taken on having a happy filly.

I was at GP on FL Derby day and was all about a filly named Backseat Rythm. She was an impressive physical specimen, but did not look terribly enthusiastic about running, and if anything appeared a bit apprehensive.

Interesting comments about "bright-eyed". I've always thought that horses have expressive eyes, but wasn't sure if I was just imagining things. One of the best handicappers I know picked Smarty Jones as his derby horse in his juvenile year based on a photo in which he showed a determined looking eye. It's interesting to hear some great horsepeople talk about it.

Rags to Riches had a big beautiful eye, intelligent and determined. Eight Belles looks like an angry horse when she runs, same with War Pass. Country Star has a gorgeous eye as well.

I hope Pure Clan's coat blooms, cuz she's my filly if Eight Belles goes to the Derby!

mac

04/17/2008 7:33 pm

Derbyme --
Those horses talk to you -- with their bodies, their demeanor, their strut. You just have to listen, which you do mostly with your eyes.

Don't think that guy is going to try the Derby with his good filly. You'll get to hook her up with your other one in an Oaks exacta.
Good luck.

DrMax944

04/17/2008 8:31 pm

Hey, Mac, thanks for the tips on picking a filly. After having read your piece, I figured-out the filly who matches most of the criteria: BSHARPSONATA. She comes from off the pace...she has a heart of a champion. She doesn't quit; she keeps coming...and that she will on May 2nd right into the winner's circle at Churchill Downs...Now, which colt to use in the Big Dance for the double...hmmm...Gayego? Colonel John? ...Adriano...hmmmm...any advice?

mac

04/17/2008 8:44 pm

DrMax944 --
The filly you like is pictured above. And she is a picture.
Oaks--derby Double. One of my favorite bets.
I'm still working on the Oaks end and I've got it down to about six on the Derby side. The three you mentioned above are among those six.
Good luck.

Stacey-Jo

04/17/2008 9:02 pm

Hi Mac,

I read your blog this morning and it made me laugh. It really has been pretty quiet over here on the girls side, which is a shame. I'm looking forward to the Oaks more than the Derby this year.

I like to see the fillies that have a little spring in their step, a beautiful shining coat, a long flowing tail, and a "Hey, look at me, I'm the best one here" look about them in the post parade, but then put on the "business suit" when they get in the gate. I started to follow Octave's career last year simply because I thought she was the prettiest horse in the '06 Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Bsharpsonata is a gorgeous horse (nice picture above, by the way), and so is Eight Belles. Throw in Pure Clan, and there's my "pretty horse" trifecta.

mac

04/17/2008 9:21 pm

Stacy-Jo --
That sounds "pretty" good to me.

dalesdestroyers

04/18/2008 10:16 am

Hey Mac,

I always say it is ok to talk to yourself, just so long as yo don't answer.......you might be expecting a trip to the room with the soft white walls soon. There has been a disappointing amount of blogging here, but it is not just the readership. One of the experts has not even updated his top ten since March 21!!!! Interested to see who is pointing to the Oaks right now. I would really like to see Eight Belles go to the Derby , especially since I have Golden Doc A, A to the Croft and Proud Spell covered in the 1st future pool. Are all of them still probable for the Oaks?

Dale

mac

04/18/2008 11:30 am

dalesdestroyers --
See why you want Eight Belles going in Derby. For her sake, I hope she doesn't.
As I understand it, the three fillies you've got covered are still a go. I think two of them have serious shots, Eight Belles or no Eight Belles.

dalesdestroyers

04/18/2008 2:09 pm

Thanks, Mac
I really can't believe that how my futures bets look right now, usually by this time, most are out or have little or no shot......those were my only fillies in pool one....skipped pool 2.......added a little more on Golden Doc A and Proud Spell (and a little on Pure Clan)in pool 3.

for the Derby, the only bets in pool 1 were on Monba and the field (another reason to want Eight Belles to go in the Derby)......again skipped pool 2, but got $20 at 70/1 on Tomcito (a coworker went to Vegas).....hope he can get over that Polytrack Saturday to qualify. In pool 3, I added the Colonel and Pyro (and a $2 flyer on Yankee Bravo and Blackberry Road). Obviously, Big Brown can hurt me bad and scares me a lot, but not much value there.

As for Eight Belles going to the Derby, I really do not think it will happen. She is a big, strong filly and may very well be able to handle it, but I do not think Larry would send her there UNLESS the owner really twists his arm OR he really thinks she has a shot!

BTW, nudge some of your fellow blog masters to get on ever to this site to add some thoughts.

Dale

gordito19

04/18/2008 2:28 pm

AWESOME CHIC Is in Churchill since last Saturday, she is CHIC. She works today at churchill with Robby Alvarado on board who has the call.There was no intention from the owner to run in hot springs the intention and focus are the lilies.

mac

04/18/2008 4:25 pm

Gordito19 --
Awesome Chic worked 6f at Churchill this morning in 1:16. Won't argue with you on Hot Springs story. I'd heard different, but it was about third hand. Alberado won't hurt.

gordito19

04/18/2008 5:24 pm

mac do you think we will see 2 ladys against the boys?

mac

04/18/2008 6:15 pm

Gordito19 --
I'm hearing that talk, but it is crazy.
If it is up to the trainer, it does not happen. But, as we know, the bottom line often goes back to the owner. And one of the worst things that can happen is when an owner thinks he/she knows more than their trainer. And it happens.
For the fillies sake, let's hope not. Also for the sake of the two colts who would wind up getting knocked out.
Let's hope it is just posturing. But if the owners' choose to go, they'll have to live with what happens. And what will happnen will not be good for their fillies.

gordito19

04/18/2008 8:45 pm

mac
I think that is logical wath you are saying but on the other hand both fillies are grade 1 already and one more it will not add much value on them but if any of those finished on the board it will add a copuple of 0 at the rigth also buyer and ragozin are the same as the boys. I think that there is no super horse in the K derby anything can happens including that a lady can show the boys a lesson. one question why proud spell donot show up as contender and eigth belles does?

mac

04/19/2008 11:11 am

gordito19 --
Under the current rules, the guys with the fillies can name them to the race. Can't argue that. Might argue toward the thought of a rules change, but not for this year.
Think they haven't been listing Proud Spell because nobody said anything about her running in the Derby until just recently. Don't think there's any more to it than that.

Stacey-Jo

04/19/2008 6:33 pm

I was just watching the Lexington Coolmore race on ESPN, and Jeanine Edwards was standing with Eight Belles and Proud Spell. Wow, Eight Belles is enormous! She towered over Proud Spell and Jeanine.

Personally, I hope she doesn't go into the Derby. She would be a force to reckon with in the Oaks, but I think she'd get lost in the shuffle of the Derby. Maybe they'll run her in the Oaks and then point her toward the Belmont. Two filly winners in two years would definitely be something.

mac

04/19/2008 6:41 pm

Stacey-Jo --
Like your thought about her staying out of the Derby. Hadn't thought of her in terms of the Belmont, but then we didn't think of Rags to Riches that way either, did we?

moon exalt

04/21/2008 1:28 pm

After watching all the race replays, Pure Clan is my pick for the Oaks. I was wondering what perspective anyone could offer on The Fantasy? Specifically on Pure Clan right at the end. It looked like she was done, then it seemed that she suddenly started to run again a couple strides before the wire, made up a bit of ground, and while I know that the gallop out doesn't always mean that much (although it was the reason I tossed Scat Daddy in the Derby last year), she passed Eight Belles right after the wire, and that one seemed done with it. I don't really know that much about this kind of thing, hence the reason I'm asking (^_^) She seems to want the extra ground. . .

While I still think the fillies have run as well as the boys this year, I hope that the two girls don't go in the derby. Not because I don't think they could do well - this seems like any kind of year, so you never really know - but because they aren't really 100% committed. The possibility that they would be scratched and run in the Oaks pending a bad post draw in the Derby (when a colt would not). . . how maddening. Anyway, even if a filly was to go in the Derby, I'm not sure either of those two would be my pick.

Also, can anyone tell me why the Oaks field is limited to 14 when you can have 20 in the Derby? I know people talk about how the Derby field shouldn't be so large anyway, but they do it all the time in Europe, Asia, and Australia, and there doesn't seem to be a problem. It also makes for very exciting racing! If there can be 20 in the Derby, why not the Oaks?

mac

04/27/2008 2:21 pm

moon exalt --
This is a long time coming and very late (apologize; folks who could give answer very busy), but so you know ----
All races in Kentucky limited to 14 horses by state racing law. Even Breeders' Cup. But in case of Ky Derby, Churchill went to Kentucky Horse Racing Authority and asked for a new rule allowing 20 horses because of the extreme interest. KHRA finally agreed and passed a special statue that allows it.
In case of Oaks, such a request would no doubt fail. Fourteen horse fields are rarely seen in the Oaks (you won't see one this year), thus is would be a hard sell to convince the KHRA that there is a need to expand the Oaks field to 20.