Little Belle can pull the Oaks upset

There's a big one to look forward to on Friday afternoon with an intriguing running of the Kentucky Oaks. Eight Belles has drawn the extreme outside post, making it highly likely she'll scratch in favor of facing the boys on Saturday in the Kentucky Derby. Still, any of at least six fillies have a legitimate shot to win this prestigious race. Here's my full analysis and picks:

1 - Golden Doc A - California-based filly has been raced heavily and exclusively on turf and synthetic tracks; the Oaks will be her first start on a traditional dirt track. She ran big when finishing second in the Beaumont going seven furlongs at Keeneland, as she got fanned extremely wide on the turn. Her speed figures as as good as any in the field and always seems to show up with her best. She's a top contender and a square price at 12-1 on the morning line.

2 - Absolutely Cindy - All her victories have been on turf or synthetic tracks. She's a notch below the top contenders.

3 - Awesome Chic - Has been away since winning the Florida Oaks at Tampa back on March 15. She lures Robby Albarado, but this consistent filly has yet to face this level of competition. Doubt she's good enough to compete.

4 - Elusive Lady - Won a Grade 3 at Aqueduct last year, but hasn't improved much since she turned 3 years old. She has speed, but doubt she can get the nine furlongs against this level of competition.

5 - Rasierra - Is winless since her maiden victory last June at Prairie Meadows. She does come off a nice effort in an ungraded event at Oaklawn in which she got hung wide on both turns. She takes the blinkers off for the Oaks and makes her third start off the layoff, which is often a horse's best. Doubt she can win this, but wouldn't be surprised to see her hit the board at a price.

6 - Country Star - She won two of the most prestigious races in the country for fillies at 2, but her 3-year-old debut was disappointing, especially since Bobby Frankel tends to have them fully cranked up off the layoff. She'll make her first start on traditional dirt in the Oaks and will need to boost her speed figures to top these. Taking a shot against at an underlaid 4-1 on the morning line.

7 - Little Belle - Love the way this regally bred A.P. Indy has developed into a Grade 1 winner. She was very game in the Ashland at Keeneland after racing on the lead over the Polytrack, which probably isn't her best surface. She comes into this on a three-race win streak for one of the sharpest barns in the country. Playing her enthusiastically at 8-1 on the morning line. Top pick.

8 - Proud Spell - The "other" Larry Jones-trained filly obviously wasn't at her best last time out over the Keeneland Polytrack. Before that, she was impressive in the Fair Grounds Oaks, defeating champion Indian Blessing. Expecting her to rebound with a big performance in the Oaks. The only negative is her short 7-2 price on the morning line.

9 - A to the Croft - Has been a disappointment this year following a promising juvenile campaign. Maybe the switch back to natural dirt and Churchill Downs is the key, but still don't like her chances against this level of competition.

10 - Bsharpsonata - Seems to handle any challenge, whether it be slop, turf or synthetic and just got outfinished by Little Belle last out in the Ashland. Amazingly consistent filly is likely to run another good one here and is tough to leave off of any exotics tickets.
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11 - Pure Clan - Has been carefully pointed to this race since an excellent juvenile campaign that included two graded wins at Churchill -- she's unbeaten under the Twin Spires. Couldn't get to Eight Belles in two starts this year at Oaklawn, but she's set to run a big one in her third start off the year. Edgar Prado jumping aboard only helps. Top contender.

12 - Eight Belles - Would be the pick in here, but she's likely to head to the Derby against the boys after drawing the extreme outside post here. She shows four straight wins and the best speed figures in the field. If she runs, she'll be very tough beat, but it sounds like she's got an another appointment on Saturday.

Picks: 1-Little Belle, 2- Pure Clan, 3- Proud Spell, 4-Bsharpsonata