Oaks Blogs

Listen, I have no idea who is going to win the Fair Grounds Oaks on Saturday.  But I can tell you this: Any jockey who lets Appealing Zophie get away with slow fractions again deserves to lose.

Last month in the Silverbulletday, Johny V. and "Zophie" were allowed to crawl through an opening half-mile in almost 49 seconds.  Three quarters went in 1:13 3/5.  So when she opened up on the field late, it should not have come as much of a surprise.  Plus, the filly who ran 2nd, Total, was making her first start around two turns.  Behind Total was Get Ready Bertie, and she is most effective when able to close into a slightly warmer pace. 

I have to think that Appealing Zophie will be unable to control things like that on Saturday.  Mistical Plan breaks from the rail, and has shown early speed routing before.  Total now has a route under her belt, and has been working well in the mornings.  Dawn After Dawn was up close in the Tiffany Lass before being held in reserve in the Silverbulletday.  So there is reason to believe others will keep Appealing Zophie from stealing this.  Or at least CAN keep her from stealing this.

I really like Total, but I can't decide if I think she is the most likely winner in here.  I have a feeling that Appealing Zophie and whichever filly goes with her will run each other out of contention.  Total may be that filly. 

An interesting alternative to the favorites is Le Chateau.  She broke her maiden a month ago in her first start on dirt. Before that, she has been very competitive in some tough turf races, including a stakes race at Churchill Downs.  In the win, she beat seven foes and opened up late to win by more than 10 lengths.  If things move quickly up front on Saturday, she might have a say in the outcome.

Or, Appealing Zophie might go to the front, run 3/4 in 1:14 2/5, and win by 6.  But I sure hope that doesn't happen.