Oaks Blogs

Watching Rags to Riches win Saturday’s Grade I Las Virgenes at Santa Anita was a pretty special moment.  We’ll see how things turn out, but it could be one of those true “star is born” performances that we’ll always remember.

The imposing daughter of A.P. Indy and half-sister to 2006  Belmont Stakes winner Jazil took the overland, scenic route in her stakes debut and still managed to dispatch a field in which seven of the eight fillies that started – including Rags to Riches – were members of the opening pool of the ’07 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager.

That victory came in only the third career start for Rags to Riches, a $1.9 million yearling purchase who seems destined – if she can avoid injury and illness – to run to her pedigree and purchase price.   Her win was so emphatic and so full of promise that she just missed being the favorite in the Oaks Future pool, which saw the mutuel field (all others) emerge as a narrow choice.

So it’s clear that Rags to Riches has plenty of upside.  What I’m wondering is whether she is not only the early favorite for the Grade I Kentucky Oaks on May 4 – but perhaps trainer Todd Pletcher’s top hope for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands on May 5.   Pletcher did nominate her to the Triple Crown, which is not exactly a regular move for the two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer, even though he nominates 20-30 horses to that three-race series each year.

There’s no question that Rags to Riches has the pedigree and physical tools to be something special.  Simply normal improvement off her Las Virgenes win could place her head and shoulders above the 3-year-old fillies of her generation. 

So where would she rank among Pletcher’s Derby prospects today?  In this corner – knowing full well that there may be some future Pletcher stars that have yet to emerge from his loaded shedrow – I would place her behind Ravel, Any Given Saturday and Circular Quay at this point, but well in front of Scat Daddy, who is starting to look like a good 2-year-old that could be out of his element in the run to the spring classics. 

Any Given Saturday makes his season debut this weekend in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa  Bay Downs, and Circular Quay gets a pass off his troubled fifth-place run in last week’s Risen Star at the Fair Grounds.  Ravel has the best pedigree of that group and was most impressive in winning the Sham at Santa Anita.  Any of those colts could emerge in the coming weeks among the handful of major contenders for Derby 133, butI especially like the potential displayed by Ravel in the Sham and Any Given Saturday in last fall's Kentucky Jockey Club.

But the guess here is that there will be little separation between those colts and the rising female star of their stable by early April.  If that’s the case, we’ll see if Pletcher is happy with the prospect of another Oaks win to go with his first victory with Ashado – or whether the notion of following the footsteps of mentor D. Wayne Lukas and winning the Derby with strapping filly is foremost on his mind.