Oaks Blogs

While I have may have been guilty a few weeks ago in conceding the Kentucky Oaks to Rags to Riches, what has transpired since has given me cause to have a 're-think'.

Following her victory in the Santa Anita Oaks, a few things have happened, that in my mind make the heavy Kentucky Oaks favorite vulnerable.

Remember, Rags to Riches will race in front of over 100,000 people with having had only four career starts under belt having been given a lengthy layoff beween starts and passing on the Ashland, Fantasy, and Santa Anita Derby.  In regards to the Derby, lots of people are making a big deal about Curlin's relative inexperience but no one has bothered to mention that about Rags to Riches.  There has been much debate about Circular Quay entering the Derby off of an eight-week break while Rags to Riches will have 54 days between races with very few folks feeling that it is a big deal.  It could very well be.

Perhaps more importantly, I'm not so sure that she beat up on quality competition with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight.  The runner-up in the S.A. Oaks was exiting a maiden victory and was well-beaten in her next start as was 4th-place finisher Baroness Thatcher (a filly that I singled in a Pick 6 at Keeneland on a day that there were no winning tickets and she was my lone loser).  Cash Included turned in moderate effort in the Fantasy finishing in the show spot again.

The point that I'm hoping to make here is that the Kentucky Oaks is not and will not be a walkover for Rags to Riches.  She still has to get the proverbial job done and will be an underlay as a very short price.

One other thing, Folk is being shipped to the U.S. at the end of the month.  While she emerged from the UAE Derby lame, horses can and do recover from lameness rather quickly at times.  If she had a major problem, she would remain in Dubai as is the case with Discreet Cat.  Provided Folk is entered in the Kentucky Oaks, she will have a real chance of winning, especially if she can get loose on the lead.